Europe Electric Bus Market – Analysis and Forecast (2021-2027)

Industry Insights by Vehicle Type (Battery Electric Bus [BEB], Hybrid Electric Bus [HEB], Plug-In Hybrid Electric Bus [PHEB]), by Battery (Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery [LFP], Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide [NMC], Others), by Length (Less Than 10m, More Than 10m)

Industry Overview

The European electric bus market is projected to reach 12,866 units by 2027, registering a CAGR of 33.9% during the forecast period. Government support for electric vehicles, increasing need to reduce greenhouse gas emission, and advancement in technology, propelling the growth of the market.

Market Segmentation

Insight by Vehicle Type

On the basis of vehicle type, the European electric bus market is categorized into battery electric bus (BEB), hybrid electric bus (HEB), plug-in hybrid electric bus (PHEB), wherein BEB category accounted for largest share in 2020. The category is expected to lead throughout the forecast period, owing to the low or zero emission of greenhouse gases, declining battery prices and improving battery efficiency. The demand for hybrid electric buses is declining as the demand has majorly shifted towards battery electric buses.

Insight by Battery

On the basis of battery, the European electric bus market is divided into lithium iron phosphate battery (LFP), lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC), and others. Among these categories, the LFP category accounted for largest share in 2020. This is primarily due to the increasing traction for the lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide batteries. The NMC batteries are anticipated to observe an increase of almost 5 times in its share by 2024 when compared to its share in 2018 in the European electric bus market.

Industry Dynamics

Growth Drivers

European electric bus market has been driven by several key factors, predominantly government support for electric vehicles, and increasing need to reduce greenhouse gas emission.

Different governments across the Europe are taking initiatives to replace the petroleum based automotive fleet with electric powered vehicles. Different countries provide incentive and frame regulations to support the electric vehicles adoption. In European Union, governments are undertaking key initiatives to opt for green energy driven vehicles. The policies related to electric buss in EU is mainly focused on technological optimization and market development.

For instance, the European Commission supported a Europe-wide electromobility initiative, Green eMotion, worth €41.8 million (USD 46.9 million), in partnership with forty-two partners from industry, utilities, electric vehicle manufacturers, municipalities, universities and technology and research institutions. The project developed prototypes to connect the islands of electromobility existing at the time of the project start. An overarching ICT architecture was defined and standards, especially for ICT interfaces, were set. New business models for public charging infrastructure were analysed and ways shown for its optimised integration into the grid.

Challenges

Key factors hindering the growth of the European electric bus market are high price of electric buses and growing popularity of natural gas fueled buses.

Geographic Overview

Geographically, the U.K. electric bus market accounted for largest share in. This is attributed to the increasing adoption rate of electric vehicles, government supporting schemes for the adoption of electric vehicles and for developing infrastructure related to electric vehicles include charging station.

Competitive Insight

Some of the key players operating in the European electric bus market are Solaris Bus & Coach, VDL Bus & Coach BV, EBUSCO, Bozankaya A.S., Belkommunmash Holding, Sor Libchavy spol. s r.o., AB Volvo, Irizar Group, Scania AB, BYD company limited, and Alexander Dennis Limited.

Forecast Parameters

- Identifying variables and establishing market impact.
- Establishing market trends regionally.
- Analyzing opportunities and market penetration rates by understanding product commercialization, regional expansion.
- Analyzing demand and supply trends and changes in industry dynamics to establish future growth.
- Analyzing sustainability strategies adhered by market participants in an attempt to determine the future course of the market.
- Analyzing historical market trends and super-imposing them on the current and future variables to determine the year-on-year trends.
- Understanding adoption, production, export, import and regulatory framework.

Data Validation

- Estimated and forecasted data was validated through industry experts.
- Apart from industry experts, data triangulation methods were used for validation.
- Bottom up and top down approach has been used for estimation and forecast of market data, whereas top down approach was used for validation.
- Demand, as well as supply-side surveys, were conducted in order to understand the industry dynamics and data validation.

Primary Research

VynZ Research conducts extensive primary research to understand the market dynamics, validate market data and have key opinions from the industry experts. The key profiles approached within the industry include CEO, CFO, CTO, President, Vice President, Product Managers, Regional Heads, and Others. Also, end-user surveys comprising of consumers are also conducted to understand consumer behavior.

1. RESEARCH OVERVIEW 

        1.1 Report Offers 
        1.2 Market Coverage 
                1.2.1 Market Estimate and Forecast by Vehicle Type 
                1.2.2 Market Estimate and Forecast by Battery 
                1.2.3 Market Estimate and Forecast by Length 
                1.2.4 Market Estimate and Forecast by Country 
        1.3 Research Phases 
        1.4 Limitations 
        1.5 Market Size Estimation and Forecast 
                1.5.1 Data Sources
                        1.5.1.1 Primary Research 
                        1.5.1.2 Secondary Research 
                1.5.2 Methodology 
                        1.5.2.1 Data Mining & Exploration 
                        1.5.2.2 Forecast Parameters 
                        1.5.2.3 Data Validation 
                        1.5.2.4 Data Triangulation 
                        1.5.2.5 Assumptions 
                1.5.3 Study Period 
                1.5.4 Data Reporting Unit 

2. MARKET DEFINITION 

        2.1 By Vehicle Type 
                2.1.1 Battery Electric Bus (BEB) 
                2.1.2 Hybrid Electric Bus (HEB) 
                2.1.3 Plug-In Hybrid Electric Bus (PHEB) 
        2.2 By Length 
                2.2.1 More Than 10 M 
                2.2.2 Less Than 10 M 
        2.3 By Battery 
                2.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) Battery 
                2.3.2 Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (NMC) 
                2.3.3 Others 

3. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 

        3.1 Industry Dynamics 
                3.1.1 Market Drivers 
                        3.1.1.1 Government Support for Electric Vehicles 
                        3.1.1.2 Advancement in Technology 
                        3.1.1.3 Increasing Need to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emission 
                3.1.2 Market Restraints 
                        3.1.2.1 High Price of Electric Bus 
                        3.1.2.2 Growing Popularity of Natural Gas Fueled Buses 
                3.1.3 Trend 
                        3.1.3.1 Increasing Product Portfolio of Electric Bus Manufacturers 
                3.1.4 Opportunity 
                        3.1.4.1 Opportunity for Large Range Electric Buses 
        3.2 Industry Ecosystem 
                3.2.1 Regulatory Framework 
                        3.2.1.1 Germany 
                        3.2.1.2 United Kingdom 
                        3.2.1.3 France 
                        3.2.1.4 Spain 
                        3.2.1.5 Poland 
                        3.2.1.6 Belgium 
                3.2.2 Value Chain Analysis 
                3.2.3 Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 
                        3.2.3.1 Bargaining Power of Buyer 
                        3.2.3.2 Bargaining Power of Supplier 
                        3.2.3.3 Intensity of Rivalry 
                        3.2.3.4 Threat of New Entrants 
                        3.2.3.5 Threat of Substitutes 
                3.2.4 Strategic Development Analysis 
        3.3 Competitive Insight 
                3.3.1 Competitive Analysis of Key Players 
                3.3.2 Market Share Analysis of Key Players 
                3.3.3 Pricing Analysis 

4. EUROPE MARKET ESTIMATE AND FORECAST 

        4.1 Europe Market Estimate and Forecast by Vehicle Type 
        4.2 Europe Market Estimate and Forecast by Battery 
        4.3 Europe Market Estimate and Forecast by Length 
        4.4 Europe Market Estimate and Forecast by Country 

5. COMPANY PROFILES 

        5.1 Solaris Bus & Coach 
                5.1.1 Snapshot 
                5.1.2 Overview 
                5.1.3 Offerings 
        5.2 VDL Bus & Coach BV 
                5.2.1 Snapshot
                5.2.2 Overview 
                5.2.3 Offerings 
        5.3 EBUSCO 
                5.3.1 Snapshot 
                5.3.2 Overview 
                5.3.3 Offerings 
        5.4 Bozankaya A.S.
                5.4.1 Snapshot 
                5.4.2 Overview 
                5.4.3 Offerings 
        5.5 Belkommunmash Holding 
                5.5.1 Snapshot 
                5.5.2 Overview 
                5.5.3 Offerings 
        5.6 SOR Libchavy spol. s r.o. 
                5.6.1 Snapshot 
                5.6.2 Overview 
                5.6.3 Offerings 
        5.7 AB Volvo 
                5.7.1 Snapshot 
                5.7.2 Overview 
                5.7.3 Offerings 
                5.7.4 Financial Insights 
        5.8 Irizar Group 
                5.8.1 Snapshot 
                5.8.2 Overview 
                5.8.3 Offerings 
        5.9 Scania AB 
                5.9.1 Snapshot 
                5.9.2 Overview 
                5.9.3 Offerings 
                5.9.4 Financial Insights 
        5.10 BYD Company Limited 
                5.10.1 Snapshot 
                5.10.2 Overview 
                5.10.3 Offerings 
                5.10.4 Financial Insights 
        5.11 Alexander Dennis Limited 
                5.11.1 Snapshot 
                5.11.2 Overview 
                5.11.3 Offerings

LIST OF TABLES 

TABLE 1 SOURCES 
TABLE 2 ELECTRIC BUS COMPONENT PRICE 2021 
TABLE 3 COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS 
TABLE 4 AVERAGE PRICES OF DIFFERENT ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS FOR 12 M ELECTRIC BUS 
TABLE 5 EUROPE ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SIZE, BY VEHICLE TYPE, UNITS (2015 – 2020) 
TABLE 6 EUROPE ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SIZE, BY VEHICLE TYPE, UNITS (2021 – 2027) 
TABLE 7 EUROPE ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SIZE, BY BATTERY, UNITS (2015 – 2020) 
TABLE 8 EUROPE ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SIZE, BY BATTERY, UNITS (2021 – 2027) 
TABLE 9 EUROPE ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SIZE, BY LENGTH, UNITS (2015 – 2020) 
TABLE 10 EUROPE ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SIZE, BY LENGTH, UNITS (2021 – 2027) 
TABLE 11 EUROPE ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SIZE, BY COUNTRY, UNITS (2015 – 2020) 
TABLE 12 EUROPE ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SIZE, BY COUNTRY, UNITS (2021 – 2027) 
TABLE 13 SNAPSHOT – SOLARIS BUS & COACH 
TABLE 14 SNAPSHOT – VDL BUS & COACH BV 
TABLE 15 SNAPSHOT – EBUSCO 
TABLE 16 SNAPSHOT – BOZANKAYA A.S. 
TABLE 17 SNAPSHOT – BELKOMMUNMASH HOLDING 
TABLE 18 SNAPSHOT – SOR LIBCHAVY SPOL. S R.O. 
TABLE 19 SNAPSHOT – AB VOLVO 
TABLE 20 SNAPSHOT – IRIZAR GROUP 
TABLE 21 SNAPSHOT – SCANIA AB 
TABLE 22 SNAPSHOT – BYD COMPANY LIMITED
TABLE 23 SNAPSHOT – ALEXANDER DENNIS LIMITED
 
LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1 SECONDARY SOURCES FOR DIFFERENT PARAMETERS 
FIGURE 2 DATA MINING & EXPLORATION 
FIGURE 3 DATA TRIANGULATION 
FIGURE 4 ASSUMPTIONS FOR MARKET ESTIMATION AND FORECAST 
FIGURE 5 VALUE CHAIN ANALYSIS 
FIGURE 6 PORTER’S FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS 
FIGURE 7 EUROPE ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SHARE, BY COMPANY (2021) 
FIGURE 8 EUROPE ELECTRIC BUS MARKET HIGHLIGHTS 
FIGURE 9 EUROPE ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SIZE, BY VEHICLE TYPE, UNITS (2015 – 2027) 
FIGURE 10 EUROPE ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SIZE, BY BATTERY, UNITS (2015 – 2027) 
FIGURE 11 EUROPE ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SIZE, BY LENGTH, UNITS (2015 – 2027) 
FIGURE 12 EUROPE ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SIZE, BY COUNTRY, UNITS (2015 – 2027) 
FIGURE 13 FINANCIAL INSIGHTS – AB VOLVO 
FIGURE 14 FINANCIAL INSIGHTS – SCANIA AB 
FIGURE 15 FINANCIAL INSIGHTS – BYD COMPANY LIMITED